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19 To put it another way, although terrorists and other nonstate actors rarely, if ever, engage in the sort of formal “cost–benefit” analyses that many social scientists futilely seek to model, and their “rationality” may not be comprehensible to outsiders, they normally carry out their acts of violence in order to achieve more or less calculated operational objectives. 20 To the extent that this is true, whether terrorist choose to attack targets with CBRN materials and weapons will largely depend—assuming that (1) they have the technical capabilities to do so, and that (2) using such agents is not utterly antithetical to their ideological agendas and/or psychological makeup—on whether the operational advantages that their use might be perceived to confer is seen as outweighing the operational disadvantages that their uses might incur.
In particular, both authors question the likelihood of terrorists being able to successfully use WMD on a large scale. See John Mueller, Overblown: How Politicians and the Terrorism Industry Inflate National Security Threats, and Why We Believe Them (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2006); and Ian S. Lustick, Trapped in the War on Terror (Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press, 2006). For applications of this methodology, see Gary Ackerman and Kevin Moran, Bioterrorism and Threat Assessment, Weapons of Mass Destruction Commission (The “Blix” Commission), Stockholm (2005); and Gary Ackerman, “Beyond Arson?
Indeed, the historical record is replete with examples of violence-prone extremist groups whose members simultaneously espoused delusional worldviews and exhibited a ruthless efficiency on the operational level. Given such acute disagreements among analysts concerning the strategic rationality of al-Qa‘ida, it should come as no surprise to learn that they cannot even agree on the most important fundamental questions. Take, for example, the seemingly straightforward matter of whether al-Qa‘ida carried out the 9/11 attacks with the specific intention, among others, of provoking a massive and hopefully ham-fisted and therefore counterproductive American military invasion of Muslim territories.